Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
